It is that time of year.
The time when you find yourself obsessionally studying the league table and the fixtures to try to master all the possible ramifications.
On a lot of levels it is a totally meaningless exercise because nothing can be predicted for certain. Who would have thought Portsmouth would beat Middlesbrough and Ipswich this week? However, the drive to do it seems irresistible.
So here goes............
Let's take the worst case scenario. We lose our last four games and we finish with 49 points and a goal difference of minus 19. Who could overtake us?
Leicester (41 points) would need a minimum of two wins and two draws to pip us on goal difference. Is it likely? They have to visit relegation rivals Portsmouth and Blackburn and they host Millwall and Hull at The King Power. If they lose any of those games they would have to win the other three. They have only won two of their sixteen games this calendar year and just one of their last fifteen. They have drawn six of their last ten but draws aren't good enough. Defeat at Fratton Park on Saturday could be the last straw.
Oxford (44 points) would need two wins or one win and two draws to leapfrog us on goal difference. Their recent form is quite good - five unbeaten at home and only one defeat in their last eight. However, Derby (away) on Saturday might prove a bit much, and beating Wrexham at home next Tuesday won't be easy. They would expect three points at home to Sheffield Wednesday but would struggle to feel confident about Millwall away on the final day. Five points might be achievable, but, unfortunately, five points would be enough unless their goal difference took a battering.
West Brom (46) are the form team in the current struggle and are on a seven game unbeaten run which includes wins against Bristol City and Hull plus draws with Southampton and Millwall. They will fancy their chances of getting a draw at Preston and beating Watford at home. They might even quite like Ipswich at home and their final day game is at Sheffield Wednesday so you would back them to top fifty points. Any deduction of points for overspending is likely to be minimal so they could probably overhaul us nevertheless.
Blackburn (48) only have three more games and they host Coventry on Friday evening. Defeat would leave them one point shy of us with a trip to Sheffield United and a home game with Leicester to follow. Their goal difference is the worst of the pack at present (-15) but you would expect them to pick up at least a point and, if Leicester are already relegated, to pouch all three on the final day. They do have an extensive injury list.
Portsmouth (48) appear to be the team most likely to over take us but they are very unpredictable. After their two 3-1 wins in a week at The Valley and Millwall they managed just one point from six games and were cuffed 6-1 at QPR. However, they then recovered to draw with Norwich and Oxford before their momentous recent defeats of Middlesbrough and Ipswich. They will expect another three points on Saturday against Leicester at Fratton Park and they are then left with trips to Coventry and Stoke before hosting Birmingham on the final day.
Remember - all the above is predicated on the basis of Charlton securing no more points at all. We shouldn't forget that we ourselves are on a run of six away games without defeat and that even a draw at Hillsborough would give us a six point advantage over Oxford if they lose at Derby. If Portsmouth can beat Ipswich and West Brom can beat Hull then why can't we? Yes, of course, if my aunt had wheels she'd be a bicycle but.....................
Keep the faith.
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